University of Kerbala
Faculty of Administration and Economics / University of Kerbala has discussed the Ph.D dissertation which is entitled “early warning of banking crises using Markov model – an applied study on a sample of country economies of the period (2000-2023)”.
The study aims at proposing an early warning system to enhance ability of governments and central banks in the countries studied to confront banking crises by predicting banking crises.
The study includes adopting a proposed forecasting model represented by Markov-Switching model to reach possibility of generating accurate forecasting signals capable of anticipating future banking sector crises.
The thesis concludes that Markov switching model is efficient as an early warning model for predicting banking crises, as it is able to generate a high probability of a crisis situation, while it recommends the possibility of adopting Markov model as an early warning model by policy makers and academics.
