أثر الانفتاح التجاري على بعض المتغيرات الاقتصادية الكلية العراق حالة دراسية للمدة(2004 ـ 2020)

The impact of trade openness on some Macroeconomic variables – Iraq case study For the Period (2004 – 2020)

Abstract:
This study focused on analyzing and measuring the impact of trade openness on some economic variables (GDP, unemployment rate, exchange rate, trade balance, international reserves, poverty) In Iraq for the period (2004-2020) Modern standard methods have been used Using the Autoregressive Distributed Deceleration (ARDL) model, which depends on the time-series stability test, this model gives results on the nature of the relationship in the short and long term.
This study came to answer the questions: To what extent is the Iraqi economy open to trade abroad? What is the nature of the relationship between trade openness and these variables in the short and long term? What is the type of relationship? Is there a long-term equilibrium relationship between trade openness and these economic variables in Iraq? In an attempt to answer these questions, the study came up with several assumptions, the most important of which is the existence of a long-term equilibrium relationship between the policy of trade openness and the macroeconomic variables (GDP, unemployment rate, exchange rate, trade balance, international reserves).
The study reached several results, including:
– The degree of commercial openness of the Iraqi economy reached (66.5%) on average, which is a high degree of openness with the outside world, which indicates that Iraq seeks to implement the principle of commercial freedom.
-The existence of a long-term equilibrium relationship between all the economic variables under study and the trade openness index (the degree of economic exposure), with the exception of the nominal exchange rate, as there is no long-term equilibrium relationship between it and the trade openness index.
– There is a co-integration relationship between the independent variable and the long-term dependent variables, except for the nominal exchange rate, and there are short-term equilibrium relationships through the use of the ARDL model through the parameters of the independent variables.
– The existence of a positive and moral impact on the gross domestic product, whether with or without oil, as well as unemployment, the trade balance and international reserves, and this is consistent with the logic of economic theory and previous studies.
– The existence of a negative and moral effect of the parallel exchange rate only in the short term, but in the long term, the relationship has a non-significant effect.