أثر التباطؤات الزمنية للسياسة النقدية على بعض متغيرات الاقتصاد الكلي: تجارب دول مختارة مع إشارة خاصة للعراق

The Effect Time Lags of Monetary Policy on Certain Macroeconomic Variables. Selected Countries Experiences With a Specific Reference To Iraq

The phenomenon of time lags is considered to be one of the obstacles that encounters monetary policy which may be long or short according to the economic circumstances of the countries. It contains two aspects: the one which is related to the appropriate timing where right procedures are taken place for the modifications of the track economic achievement. The other aspect is the time required for the manifestation of these procedures in the macroeconomic variables and their consequences which may be undesirable when the economic circumstances change as these procedures do not stop at certain time limits. Therefore, the inappropriate timing of such procedures may intensify rather than smooth those economic fluctuations. The current study confirms the significance of the time element in explaining the behavior of economic phenomena by including the temporal factor in economic functions through the use of time-lagging variables. Based on hypotheses, the study examined the effect of time lags of the channels of monetary policy transmission and their reflections on some macro variables. The hypothesis assumes existence of an effect of the time factor in the channels of monetary policy transmission on the estimated macroeconomic functions. In order to expand the comprehension of the phenomenon of time lags and its reflections on macroeconomic variables, the phenomenon was investigated in three countries that differ in the level and degree of economic development. These countries are: The United States of America, the Republic of South Korea and Iraq, using quarterly data for the period (2005-2020).
1- In order to test the hypothesis, the study was divided into three chapters. The first chapter tackled the theoretical framework of monetary policy and time lag while the second one dealt with analyzing and measuring the relationship between the channels of the monetary policy transmission and its time lags with some macro variables in the sample under scrutiny. The last chapter was devoted to measuring the impact of the time lags of the channels of monetary policy on some macroeconomic variables in Iraq through utilizing Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model(ARDL). The study presented a set of conclusions where the most essential one is the existence of a short-run equilibrium relationship between the time lags of monetary policy and some of macroeconomic variables under study. Additionally, the speed of adaptation was high in most of the estimated functions. Moreover, the predictive performance of the error correction model was tested and it was found that all the estimated macroeconomic functions have a high degree of prediction. Accordingly, its results can be dependent in evaluating policies to make appropriate economic decisions to accomplish the proposed goals.