أثر سعـــــــر الصرف في المؤشرات العـــــــــامة لأسعار الاسهم – دراسة تطبيقية في سوق العـــــــــراق للأوراق المالية للمدة (2005-2011)

The impact of the exchange rate in the general indicators of stock prices - An Application Study in the Iraqi stock market For the period (2005-2011)

The aim of this study is  to know the effect of the exchange rate of the Iraqi dinar, the general index of the prices of companies stocks listed on the Iraq Stock market and to clarify the type of relationship between the exchange rate, and the general index of stock prices, and on this basis, for the purpose of processing problem of the study of fluctuations non expected in the price Iraqi dinar exchange which leads to losses of activity is not considered in financial and economic institutions, as well as to stagger and disrupt its plans to achieve its goals, as well as covering aspects of subject matter, this study has dealt with two main aspects: The first is conceptual and the knowledge side, as it offered a lot of concepts related to exchange rates and fluctuations as well as its Affecting Factors and their the theories that explain how to determine these prices and then explain what the financial markets, it includes: (concept – important – Category) And the statement of the concept of stock markets and clarifying stocks, types and factors affecting stock prices as well as the concept of the general index and the benefits of using it and how to build it, with the highlight on the exchange rate of the Iraqi dinar, the Iraqi Stock market to be a springboard for the second side of the study’s analytical side, which based on monthly data for each of the exchange rate and the general index of stocks of listed companies in the Iraqi stock  market for the time period from the month of January 2005 until the month of December 2011, That each of the Iraqi Stock market, the Central Bank of Iraq publish such data periodic according to the period mentioned on websites on the Internet, because through that data can be analyzed sides multi-differentiated have had left a clear effect in answer to questions from the problem of the study. Hence this study has produced a lot of the conclusions Include :

1 – There is Vector autoregressive joint between the exchange rate and the general index (the prices of stocks of the Iraqi stock market, the prices of stocks hotel and tourism sector), according to test co-integration and this means that there correlated long-term in two directions between the indicators mentioned in Iraq, despite the presence of   Mutuality   in the short term. With the exception of the general index of the stock prices of sectors (banking, insurance, the investment, the services, of Industry, of Agriculture), as there is no the common vector for integration between the exchange rate and this means there is no correlation between long-term.

2 – There is a causal relationship bidirectional between the exchange rate and the general index (Prices for stocks the Iraqi stock market and the stock prices of companies operating in hotel and tourism sector) in Iraq, according to test causality , moving from the exchange rate to the general index of stock prices on the one hand , and the cursor General stock prices to the exchange rate on the other hand , because the only sector that has to do with the direct dealing in foreign currency by foreign tourists and Arabs and this is in line with the analytical side of the study , and certainly the primacy of movement in the general index of the stock prices compared to changing exchange rate fluctuations and thus it is possible to consider market index stocks as an indicator of the year on the direction of future economic activity.

3-The results vector autoregressive  that the exchange rate effect and anisotropic in different directions on the general index of the stock prices from month to other, according to the surveyed period, and all sectors of the study sample.

The study reached a set of recommendations was most notably:

1 – necessity of increased the stability of the exchange rate of the Iraqi dinar, and support to enhance the trust of the Iraqi economy in general, It can contributes to of that work to adopt a fiscal policy based more on linking the Iraqi dinar exchange rate to a basket of currencies in addition to the U.S. dollar because of its significant impact on stock prices and trading volume in the Iraqi stock market . Any necessity move away from the exchange rate system and transformation to a single currency basket system, and the country’s currency to a basket of world currencies, and thus maintain the stability of the largest in the value of the local currency.

2 -We can adopt the results of the analysis the standard reached by study, the possibility the use of the exchange rate policy to influence economic activity through the influence of the stock market indicators, including the general index of the prices of shares of companies listed on the market, and thus guide the exchange rate policy properly.

3 – create a special centers within the Iraqi market Securities aimed at informed investors to information regarding of actions undertaken Central Bank of Iraq on the fluctuations taking place in the exchange rate to support the decisions of buying and selling within the market.