إعداد الموازنة العامة الاتحادية في ظل عدم التأكد وتأثيرها على الإنفاق العام والقرارات الإستراتيجية – أنموذج مقترح

RP-Preparing the federal general budget in light of uncertainty and its impact on public spending and strategic decisions - a proposed model.pdf

The research aims to identify potential risks in advance with regard to budget estimates and suggest what should be done in the event of surplus and deficit, so that they do not negatively affect the performance of government units, as well as developing the method of preparing the federal general budget by proposing a budget model of continuous programs and performance in light of the uncertainty of state revenues and its expenditures, the state uses the method of budgeting items that do not rely on sound scientific foundations in estimating expenditures under volatile economic conditions, especially since Iraq relies heavily on oil sales for its revenues, which exacerbates the problem of uncertainty in preparing the budget, as the current research is an introduction to reforming government performance. By getting rid of the traditional method of preparing the budget in a way that ensures the efficient use of public funds by proposing a budget framework that is consistent with the laws in force, such as Federal Financial Management Law No. (6) of 2019, as the research period extended for the years (2015-2019) for the federal general budget in Iraq, due to the importance of this period due to the difficult economic conditions that the country went through, represented by the war on terrorism and fluctuations in oil prices, in addition to the approval of all budget laws for the years above. Among the most important findings of the research are the following: The budget system used in Iraq cannot achieve the long-term strategic goals of the state, because its main goal is control and because it is not flexible in the event of an increase or decrease in estimated revenues. Planning a balanced government program as another stage within the federal budget will be in support of the Iraqi Federal Financial Management Law No. (6) of 2019 to invest the surplus in oil revenues.