التعديل الدوري للسياسة المالية استجابة لفجوة الناتج في أقتصادات بلدان مختارة مع إشارة خاصة للعراق (1990 -2018)

Periodical adjustment of fiscal policy responsive to output gap for selected countries with special reference to Iraqi economy for the period (1990-2018)

Abstract :

The research seeks to identify the impact of the output gap on fiscal policy in the economies of selected countries (Norway, Malaysia) as well as Iraq during the period (1990-2018), and to find out the type of fiscal policy in which it operates, is automatic fiscal policy (subjective), or A countercyclical fiscal policy, and accordingly, the output gap was calculated in each of the sample countries using the

Okun’s LAW Unemployment Law and measuring the effect of the relationship between fiscal policy and the output gap using the ARDL model, the research reached a conclusion that there is a real impact For the output gap in the fiscal policy of the sample countries, she noted The results indicate a short and long term relationship between research variables.

A number of conclusions were reached, perhaps the most prominent of which is that the Norwegian economy is an economy that managed to manage oil financial revenues wisely and in an optimal way and followed a method of fiscal policy based on the periodic adjustment of the changes in the output gap, and moved to a diversified economy based on a broad base of economic sectors.

The Malaysian economy has also managed to build a strong and diversified economy, which is also led by the industrial sector. As for the Iraqi economy, it has been held hostage to oil revenues, and a country has suffered from deep structural imbalances, and its fiscal policy has become consistent with the direction of the economic cycle and It expressed negative output gap, and the Iraqi economy suffers chronically from a negative output gap caused by excessive dependence on the oil sector and the neglect of the rest of the productive sectors.

Based on the foregoing, a number of recommendations were proposed that would elevate the reality of the Iraqi economy by benefiting from the experiences of the sample countries, through rational management of oil revenues, and exit from the tunnel of dependence on the rentier resource that makes the economy swing with the fluctuation of international oil prices, which was reflected On the reality of development and its failure in it.