تأثير تغير المناخ في نظام شبكة مياه الامطار: دراسة الحالة في كربلاء

CLIMATE CHANGE EFFECT IN STORM WATER NETWORK SYSTEM: CASE STUDY IN KERBALA

The flooding of the storm water network is caused by climate change, land use change, increase in urbanization, and the wider population. This study deals with the development of models to extrapolate future change in rainfall events in order to protect the infrastructure of the storm water network from flooding. The Al-Abbas quarter in Karbala city, Iraq was selected as a case study. For the first analysis, the effect of climate change on the predicted rainfall intensity for the future period (2017-2070) depends on historical data for the period of 1980- 2016. This was conducted using the artificial neural network (ANN) model. The input layers that enter to ANN model include climate change parameter include (monthly rainfall, min. temperature, max. temperature, wind speed, humidity, and sunshine). This data divided to training data represent 95% of the data and testing data represent 5% for calibration process. Output parameter include rainfall intensity. Following this, a Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) model is constructed in order to assess the flood conditions of the study area for expected rainfall intensities. The results indicate that the maximum rainfall intensity will reach 46.48 mm/h. in 2067. This value represents three time of the design intensity. The percent of the flooding manhole increase with progress of time. At the end of the design period (2070) stage 1has been decrease with rate about 39.2%, stage 2 has been increase with rate about 14.2%, stage3 has been increase 6 time, stage has no change, and stage 5 increase with rate about 6% compared to beginning period (2017).