تأثير تقلبات أسعار النفط الخام في أسعار الأسهم

The Impaction of fluctuations in crude oil prices in the stocks prices

This study try to demonstrate the impact of fluctuations in crude oil prices on the movement of stock prices in the financial market act in stock market, as well as describe the most important factors that lead to such fluctuations, and the effects on the global economy, the problem center at unclear relationship between the two variables study,    we use concluded Analysis Applied to prove all the assumptions contained in the research and get out a number of conclusions, among which was the following: –

1- The price fluctuations of crude oil a disruptive impact on stock prices in financial markets of the countries exporting crude oil in the biggest consuming countries, taking into account the limitations of this difference.

2-vary the size of the impact of these fluctuations on exporting countries according to their economic and technological Developing countries showed greater attachment to the relatively developed countries with these fluctuations and that the limited and weak economic structures and the difficulty of adapting economically with these fluctuations appropriate duration of time.

3-extends this effect to the financial markets of the import nations of crude oil, and the advanced countries are import more oil in response to the volatility of developing countries with nuance as well, largely due to the capacity of financial markets and the level of reliability higher on these markets in the expansion and development and financing of economic activity, While financial markets are still limited role of economic and financially in developing countries .

4-the level of economic growth plays an important role and positive in the face of changes caused by fluctuations in oil prices at the level of prices in stock markets for the oil-exporting countries, whileRepresents more weight should be faced for the oil import nations, as they face the first decrease or increase in financial returns only, while facing the other, especially when high crude oil prices (demand shock) an increase in expenditures import and a shortage of sources of primary energy at the same time, raising the cost of production and increasing rates of inflation

5-the world oil market has seen two types of fluctuations (shock) during the period of research are: –

A – demand shock – has lived through the oil market in the second quarter and third quarter of 2008 due to strong economic growth of some countries in Southeast Asia, specifically India and China, and the year 2009, saw the demand shock in the second quarter and third of it also, after the global economy recovers from the effects of the crisis that have occurred in the previous year 0

B – supply-side shock – the shock reflected in the fourth quarter of 2008 and the first quarter of 2009 as a result of the global economic slowdown affected by the global financial crisis .