تحليل الأثر المتبادل بين الانفاق الحكومي الاجتماعي والنمو الاقتصادي في العراق للمدة (1980-2012)

The Mutual Effect analysis Between Social Government Spending and Economic Growth in Iraq in the period (1980-2012)

The study aims to identify and know what type of causality and reciprocity between the index of social welfare and indicator of economic growth in Iraq, and the time period 1980 – 2012 using the analysis model standard VAR and through the program record EVIEWS 7, and determine whether the relationship is one-way or two-way and the size of that relationship to see how social welfare check in Iraq during the period in question and its impact on economic growth rates .

The study found that the channels of transmission of the impact of the terms of spending on social welfare , such as education , health and social protection ( increased spending on education lead to increased quality and quantity of education indicators , as well as for the health index , social protection and that are related to improving the quality of health and living conditions for members of the community ) to economic growth more impact than transmission the effect of economic growth to index (social welfare) , according to the index causal Kranger and moral variables in the analysis model standard, and all that is consistent with the size of allocations to the terms of social welfare as a percentage of GDP during the time period , which requires increased spending on education, health and protection social , in addition to providing a database and determine the level of deprivation map of Iraq.

The index of social welfare in Iraq reflects the extent of the contribution of the index in raising economic growth rates when the policy is aimed at spending in the area of ​​social welfare to building human capital and infrastructure development , job creation and the reduction of the unemployed and therefore, the final outcome will be the relationship reciprocal and opposite directions of luxury social to economic growth and vice versa.