تحليل العلاقة بين الدين العام والنمو الاقتصادي في البلدان النفطية (العراق حالة دراسية- للمدة 2004-2020)

Analyzing the relationship between public debt and economic growth in oil-producing countries (Iraq as a case study)

Abstract
The focus on the economic effects of public debt on economic growth increases as the volume of public debt increases in developing countries due to the burdens of paying debt and interest payments on the budget and the economy. In Iraq, the risks of public debt have increased with the continuation of sharp fluctuations in crude oil prices in global markets and the resulting decline in oil revenues, which constitute nearly 90% of the financing of the general budget in the country. This study attempts to analyze the nature of the relationship between public debt, both internal and external, and economic growth in Iraq during the period (2004-2020). The developments of internal and external public debt and trends of economic growth in Iraq during the study period were analyzed, then using modern standard models (ARDL) in estimating the quarterly time series of these variables to show the nature of the relationship between the rising rates of public debt and economic growth. The results concluded that the effects of the internal and external public debt on economic growth during the short and long term vary, given that most of the studied variables are directly and indirectly related to the movements of oil prices in global markets. The study concluded with a set of conclusions and recommendations.