قياس وتحليل العلاقة بين الموازنة العامة و سعر الصرف و الضرائب الكمركية في العراق للمدة (1988-2017)

Rp_ Measurement and Analysis of the relationship between The General Budget , exchange rate and customs taxes in Iraq for the period (1988-2017) pdf

Abstract:-
The deficit phenomenon is one of the main problems in the financial
policies of most countries of the world, especially Iraq. The Iraqi
economy has suffered from budget deficit due to several reasons,
including the imbalance of public expenditure of the state. Current
expenditures constitute the bulk of public expenditure. As well as the
imbalance of the structure of public revenues of the state and dependence
on a large source of a limited monies to obtain a large part of the general
revenue, the crude oil sector, compared to the weakness of the
contribution of other sectors, which makes the Iraqi economy vulnerable
to external shocks, The security situation and the political, which quickly
Matather negatively in the general state budget.
This study is based on the hypothesis that exchange rate
flexibility can contribute to the financing of the general budget as
well as the non-effectiveness of customs taxes.
In order to test this hypothesis, the study was divided into three
chapters. The first dealt with the theoretical framework of the deficit of
the general budget, customs taxes and the second exchange rate. The
analysis dealt with the reality of the Iraqi economy. The third dealt with
the measurement and analysis of the relationship between the general
budget deficit, customs taxes and exchange rate. On the results of the
standard models using the ARDL model, which is one of the advanced
standard methods. This model depends on the time series stability test and
gives results on the nature of the relationship in the short term (error
correction model) Results for the long term. The study reached a number
of conclusions, the most important of which was the existence of a longterm equilibrium relationship as well as the short-term relationship
between the variables of the study. The rate of adjustment of the deficit
function (0,26) was the custom tax function and the exchange rate
function respectively (-0.81, -0.38) Then the imbalances that can occur
will be corrected in part in the same year and their return to the long-term equilibrium value