ﻗﯿﺎس وﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ اﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺑﯿﻦ اﻟﻜﺜﺎﻓﺔ اﻟﻨﺴﺒﯿﺔ ﻟﺮأس اﻟﻤﺎل وﺑﻌﺾ اﻟﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮات اﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎدﯾﺔ اﻟﻜﻠﯿﺔ اﻟﻌﺮاق ﺣﺎﻟﺔ دراﺳﯿﺔ

رسالة ماجستير

اسم الباحث : إﯾﻔﺎن ﺟﻮاد ﻛﺎظﻢ

اسم المشرف : مناضل ﻋﺒﺎس ﺣﺴﯿﻦ اﻟﺠﻮاري

الكلمات المفتاحية :

الكلية : كلية الادارة والاقتصاد

الاختصاص : العلوم الاقتصادية

سنة نشر البحث : 2021

تحميل الملف : اضغط هنا لتحميل البحث

ﯾﺴﻌﻰ اﻟﺒﺤﺚ اﻟﻰ اﻟﺘﻌﺮف ﻋﻠﻰ ﻗﯿﺎس وﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ اﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺑﯿﻦ اﻟﻜﺜﺎﻓﺔ اﻟﻨﺴﺒﯿﺔ ﻟﻌﻨﺼﺮ رأس اﻟﻤﺎل ﺑﻌﺾ اﻟﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮات اﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎدﯾﺔ اﻟﻜﻠﯿﺔ  (اﻟﻨﺎﺗﺞ اﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ اﻻﺟﻤﺎلي اﻻﻧﻔﺎق اﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎر اﻟﺼﺎدرات ، وﻣﻌﺪﻻت اﻟﺒﻄﺎﻟﺔ ) ﻟﻠﻤﺪة 1995- 2018 وﯾﻘﺎس ﺑﻄﺮق ﻋﺪة ﻣﻨﮭﺎ اﻟﻤﻘﺎرﻧﺔ ﺑﯿﻦ ﻣﺮوﻧﺘﻲ ﻋﻨﺼﺮي اﻟﻌﻤﻞ ورأس اﻟﻤﺎل أو اﻟﻤﻘﺎرﻧﺔ ﺑﯿﻦ اﻧﺘﺎﺟﯿﺘﻲ اﻟﻌمل و رأس اﻟﻤﺎل ، وﻏﯿﺮھﺎ و ﯾﺮﺗﺒﻂ ھﺬا اﻟﻤﻔﮭﻮم ﺑﺎﻟﻌﺎﻣﻞ اﻟﺘﻜﻨﻮﻟﻮﺟﻲ اﻟﻤﺘﺠﺴﺪ ﻓﻲ ﻋﻨﺼﺮي اﻟﻌﻤﻞ أو رأس اﻟﻤﺎل وﺑﻨﻤﻂ اﻻﻧﺘﺎج ﻛﺜﯿﻒ اﻟﻌﻤﻞ أو رأس اﻟﻤﺎل واﺗﻀﺢ ان ھﻨﺎك ﺗﺒﺎﯾﻨ ﺎً ﻧﺴﺒﯿ ﺎً ﻟﻠﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺑﯿﻦ اﻟﻜﺜﺎﻓﺔ اﻟﻨﺴﺒﯿﺔ ﻟﻌﻨﺼﺮ رأس اﻟﻤﺎل وﺑﻌﺾ اﻟﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮات اﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎدﯾﺔ اﻟﻜﻠﯿﺔ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻌﺮاق ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪام اﻷرﻗﺎم اﻟﻘﯿﺎﺳﯿﺔ ، وفي اﻟﺠﺎﻧﺐ اﻟﺘﻄﺒﯿﻘﻲ أو اﻟﺘﺠﺮﯾﺒﻲ (impirical) ﺗﻢ اﺳﺘﺨﺪام ﻧﻤﻮذج(VAR ) واﺧﺘﺒﺎر اﻟﺘﻜﺎﻣﻞ اﻟﻤﺸﺘﺮك ل (Johansen) ودوال اﻻﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺔ اﻟﻔﻮرﯾﺔ ﻟﻤﻌﺮﻓﺔ اﺛﺎر اﻟﻜﺜﺎﻓﺔ اﻟﻨﺴﺒﯿﺔ وﺗﺒﯿﻦ أن اﻟﻜﺜﺎﻓﺔ اﻟﻨﺴﺒﯿﺔ ﻟﻌﻨﺼﺮ رأس اﻟﻤﺎل(K1t) ذو ﺗﺄﺛﯿﺮ ﺳﻠﺒﻲ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻨﺎﺗﺞ اﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ اﻻﺟﻤﺎﻟﻲ واﻻﻧﻔﺎق اﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎري ﻓﻲ اﻟﻌﺮاق واﯾﺠﺎﺑﻲ ﻧﺴﺒﻲ ﻓﻲ اﻟﺼﺎدرات و ﺗﻢ اﻻﺳﺘﺪﻻل ﻋﻠﻰ ذﻟﻚ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼل ﻣﻌﻠﻤﺔ اﻟﻤﯿﻮل اﻟﺤﺪﯾﺔ ﻟﮭﺬه اﻟﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮات ﻓﻲ ﺣﯿﻦ أﺷﺎر ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺗﺤﺪﯾﺪ اﻻرﺗﺒﺎط ) ﻛﺄﺣﺪ اﻟﻤﻌﺎﯾﯿﺮ اﻻﺣﺼﺎﺋﯿﺔ ان اﻟﻜﺜﺎﻓﺔ اﻟﻨﺴﺒﯿﺔ ﻟﻌﻨﺼﺮ رأس اﻟﻤﺎل واﻟﺼﺎدرات اﻟﻤﺘﺨﻠﻔﺔ زﻣﻨﯿﺎً ﺗﺆﺛﺮ ﺑﻨﺴﺒﺔ 80% ﻓﻲ اﻟﺼﺎدرات اﻟﺤﺎﻟﯿﺔ ﺑﯿﻨﻤﺎ ﺗﺆﺛﺮ اﻟﻜﺜﺎﻓﺔ اﻟﻤﺬﻛﻮرة واﻟﻨﺎﺗﺞ اﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ اﻻﺟﻤﺎﻟﻲ اﻟﻤﺘﺨﻠﻒ زﻣﻨﯿﺎً ﺑﻨﺴﺒﺔ 70% ﻓﻲ اﻟﻨﺎﺗﺞ اﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ اﻻﺟﻤﺎﻟﻲ ، وﻟﻢ ﺗﻮﺟﺪ ﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﺗﻜﺎﻣﻞ ﻣﺸﺘﺮك (co-integration) ﻓﻲ ﻛﻞ اﻟﻨﻤﺎذج اﻟﻘﯿﺎﺳﯿﺔ اﻟﻤﻘﺪرة ﻓﻲ ﺣﯿﻦ أﺷﺎر أﻧﻤﻮذج ﺗﺼﺤﯿﺢ اﻟﺨﻄﺄ VECM إﻟﻰ ﻋﺪم وﺟﻮد ﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﺗﻮازﻧﯿﮫ طﻮﯾﻠﺔ اﻷﻣﺪ ﻓﻲ ﻣﻌﻈﻢ اﻟﻨﻤﺎذج اﻟﻘﯿﺎﺳﯿﺔ اﻟﻤﺬﻛﻮرة وﺑﻨﺎءاً ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺎﺳﺒﻖ ﺗﻢ اﻗﺘﺮاح ﺟﻤﻠﺔ ﻣﻦ اﻟﺘﻮﺻﯿﺎت واﻟﺘﻲ ﻣﻦ ﺷﺄﻧﮭﺎ ان ﺗﺮﺗﻘﻲ ﺑﻮاﻗﻊ اﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎد اﻟﻌﺮاﻗﻲ ﻟﻌﻞ ﻣﻦ اھﻤﮭﺎ ﺿﺮورة اﻻﺳﺘﻐﻼل اﻻﻣﺜﻞ ﻟﻌﻨﺼﺮ رأس اﻟﻤﺎل ورﻓﻊ اﻧﺘﺎﺟﯿﺘﮫ اﻟﺤﺪﯾﺔ ﻣﻘﺎرﻧﺔ ﺑﻌﻨﺼﺮ اﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﻛﻮن اﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﺔ ھﻲ اﻟﻘﻄﺎع اﻟﺮاﺋﺪ او اﻟﻘﺎﺋﺪ ﻟﻠﻘﻄﺎﻋﺎت اﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎدﯾﺔ

Measuring and analyzing the relationship between relative density of capital and some macroeconomic variables. Iraq is a case study

The research seeks to identify the measurement and analysis of the relationship between the relative density of the capital component and some macroeconomic variables (GDP, investment spending, exports, and unemployment rates) for the period 1995-2018 and it is measured in several ways, including the comparison between the flexibility of the labor and capital components or the comparison between my productivity Labor, capital, etc This concept is related to the technological factor embodied in the two elements of labor or capital and the pattern of labor-intensive production or capital. Using the VAR model, Johansen’s co-integration test, and immediate response functions to know the effects of the relative density. It has a negative impact on the gross domestic product and investment spending in Iraq and a relative positive in exports, and this was inferred by the marginal tendencies parameter for these variables, while the correlation coefficient ( ) indicated as one of the statistical criteria that the relative density of the capital and exports component The time lag affects 80% of the current exports, while the mentioned density and the time lag GDP affect 70% of the GDP, and there is no co-integration relationship in all the estimated standard models. While the VECM error correction model indicated that there is no long-term equilibrium relationship in most of the mentioned standard models, and based on the foregoing, a number of recommendations were proposed, which would improve the reality of the Iraqi economy, perhaps the most important of which is the need for optimal exploitation of the element of capital and raising its marginal productivity compared to the element of work being Industry is the leading or leading sector of the economic sectors.