The Faculty of Administration and Economics at the University of Kerbala has discussed an M.A. thesis entitled”building a probabilistic model to load traffic congestion in the holy Karbala governorate”.
The thesis presented by the student Shaima Mahoud Muhammad aims at identifying a modern idea, which is knowing the distribution of crowded times, especially when the situation calls for finding a distribution in a street.
The thesis discusses ways of finding the best estimate of reliability of arrival at the specified time, as three main and important streets in the governorate have been chosen (Fatima Al-Zahra Street, “The Malls street”, Al-Iskan Street, Hay Al-Amel Street), and then conducting field trips for the purpose of collecting travel time data at peak time and outside the peak, and with the help of statistical programmes for the purpose of knowing the distribution with which the congestion time data for the three streets are visualized, as it has been noticed that the data of the two study samples for Al Zahra Street The Malls street”and Hay Al Amel Street adopted the Kochi distribution, while the data for Iskan Street has taken the distribution of Burr), and estimation methods have used reliability of access (maximum probability, omission of range, reduced estimator) of the Kochi distribution, use of methods (greatest possibility, nonlinear least squares) of the Burr distribution, and then comparison of methods for estimating the reliability of access for both distributions using the standard integrative mean square error (IMSE).
