أفضل طريقة بيزية مقيدة وتقليدية في بعض التوزيعات ثلاثية المعلمات (مع تطبيق عملي)

The best restricted bayesian and classical estimation method for some three parameters distributions (with practical application).

The current conditions witnessed by the world in general, and our country, Iraq, in particular, with the presence of the Corona pandemic, makes research and development required in the field of medicine and finding effective solutions to rid humanity of this dangerous disease. and to formulate a health policy based on solid scientific foundations to reach the desired goal .
The main idea in this The thesis is to determine the causes of death for patients with COVID-19, as three-parameter distributions have been studied, namely: gamma distribution, kappa distribution, and Burr- XII distribution. Experimental data were generated by the cumulative distribution function using Monte Carlo method using five different sample sizes (n = 25, 50, 75, 100, 150) and different values of parameters at each sample size.
As the parameters of the gamma distribution of the empirical data were estimated in four methods , namely, the maximum likelihood method , the modified maximum likelihood method, the moments method and the modified moments method, and the preference of the modified maximum likelihood method was reached.
The parameters of the kappa distribution were also estimated in three methods , namely, the maximum likelihood method, the linear moment method, and the biased-length moment method. It was concluded that the biased moments method is the best.
And the parameters of the Burr XII distribution were estimated using three loss functions which are the squared error loss function, the linear exponential loss function and the general entropy loss function. It was found that the estimation using the general entropy loss function is the best, by using the statistical criterian mean square error MSE and the statistical standard mean absolute error rate MAPE. As for the practical side, real data from Al-Hussein Hospital (peace be upon him) – Karbala Health Department were used for the period of patients’ survival, and the study sample was (140) infected people.