التنبؤ بالفشل المالي في المصارف العراقية وفق انموذج االنحدار اللوجستي دراسة تطبيقية لعينة من المصارف العراقية المدرجة في سوق العراق لألوراق المالية للفترة )2014-

Rp-Predicting Financial Failure of Iraqi Private Banks Via Logistic Regression Model.pdf

The phenomenon of financial failure is one of the most important
phenomena that requires standing in front of it and researching the causes
of its occurrence, because its results are reflected on the internal and
external parties that benefit from financial reports and the increase in the
cases of (hardship and bankruptcy) facing banks, as all the reasons that led
to financial failure increased. Paying attention to it by developing models
and analytical methods that help in early detection and prediction of this
phenomenon, which has begun to worsen in recent years. And because of
its serious impact on the goal of survival and continuity of banks, as
financial failure is the last stage of financial deterioration.
In addition to the fact that the banking sector is one of the important
economic sectors, which plays a major role in achieving progress and
feeding the various sectors contributing to any economy, it has become
necessary to predict the risks and financial failure that most banks may
face. This study dealt with predicting the financial failure of a sample of
Iraqi banks listed in the Iraqi Stock Exchange, in order to determine the
extent of the ability of these banks to face any risks or difficulties they may
face as a result of fluctuations in the Iraqi economy.
To achieve this goal, a logistic regression model was applied to a
sample of Iraqi banks listed in the Iraq Stock Exchange, in order to show
the ability of Iraqi banks to predict financial failure before it occurs. Iraqi,
which included 10 successful banks, and 9 troubled banks.
The research found that Iraqi banks operate in a very dangerous
environment in terms of the external and internal conditions surrounding
them and are difficult to predict, so appropriate non-traditional models
must be provided that enable them to predict financial failure before
actually declaring default, and that the rise in property rights, the
availability of liquidity and the quality of banking assets have a role
Effective, clear and direct in reducing the possibility of financial failure.
Among the most important recommendations was the need to provide
models to predict financial failure in Iraqi banks and the need to maintain
liquidity levels within a reasonable ratio and maintain property rights
within approved recommendations and instructions, in addition to the need
to pay attention to the quality of banking assets and manage them
effectively at a controlled risk level.
Key words: predicting financial failure, logistic regression model,
Iraqi banks
Abstrac
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Ministry of Higher Education and Scientific Re