تحليل العوامل المؤثرة في تحقيق الاستدامة المالية في العراق

Analyzing The Factors Affecting Achieving Financial Sustainability In Iraq

Abstract :

The Iraqi economy witnessed exceptional circumstances in the past decades of wars and then economic sanctions that lasted for more than a decade, which reflected in the decline of all economic indicators, and under these circumstances the state resorted to public debt and the issuance of cash to finance public spending to meet the requirements of citizens, and these policies achieved runaway inflation The depreciation of the local currency and the chronic deficit.

But after 2003, in light of the increase in oil revenues and economic openness to the outside world, we did not see any change in the reality of the Iraqi economy, but the rentier nature deepened, and there were no directions for public authorities to draw up their economic policies that aim to address structural imbalances to rebuild the destroyed economic structure and keep the economy away from The impact of internal and external shocks and achieving financial sustainability.

Therefore, the study aims to study the internal and external public debt and its relationship to financial sustainability in the Iraqi economy, analyze financial performance and the most important factors affecting achieving financial sustainability, analyze oil revenues and non-oil exports and their impact and importance in the sustainability of financial conditions in Iraq, The research also stems from the hypothesis that there is a relationship between factors affecting financial sustainability (public debt, budget deficit, non-oil exports, oil revenues and oil prices) and the opportunities to achieve financial sustainability in Iraq, and for that the study was divided into three chapters, The first dealt with the theoretical and epistemological framework of public debt and financial sustainability, and the second chapter dealt with the analytical framework of the financial public debt, Iraqi and financial sustainability in Iraq and the financial factors in financial sustainability, while the third chapter dealt with measuring factors affecting financial sustainability and obtaining standard results for using the self-regression model for distributed slowdown (ARDL), The study reached a set of conclusions, the most important of which is the existence of a short-term relationship as well as the long-term equilibrium relationship between the financial sustainability index and macroeconomic variables and economic variables as well as the speed of adaptation in the model relatively quickly and therefore the imbalances that may occur are corrected for the largest percentage of them in the year Itself and return it to the long-term equilibrium value.