أثر الاستثمار في قطاع الاتصالات في النمو الاقتصادي

دبلوم عالي

اسم الباحث : وميض كريم عبد الرحيم

اسم المشرف : ا م.د. خضير عباس الوائلي

الكلمات المفتاحية :

الكلية : كلية الادارة والاقتصاد

الاختصاص : العلوم الاقتصادية

سنة نشر البحث : 2021

تحميل الملف : اضغط هنا لتحميل البحث

الخلاصة :

ﯾﻌد اﻻﺳﺗﺛﻣﺎر ﺑﺷﻛل ﻋﺎم واﻻﺳﺗﺛﻣﺎر  اﻷﺟﻧﺑﻲ   اﻟﻣﺑﺎﺷر  ﻧﺷﺎطﺎً  ﻣن اﻷﻧﺷطﺔ اﻻﻗﺗﺻﺎدﯾﺔ اﻟﻣﮭﻣﺔ  اﻟذي ﯾﺳ ﺄھم  ﺑﺷﻛل ﻓﻌﺎل ﻓﻲ دﻓﻊ ﻋﺟﻠﺔ اﻟﻧﻣو اﻻﻗﺗﺻﺎدي  إﻟﻰ  اﻷﻣﺎم ﺑﻌدﻣﺎ  أﺻﺑﺢ ھذا اﻟﻣوﺿوع ھدﻓﺎ  رﺋﯾﺳﯾ ﺎً  ﺗﺳﻌﻰ ﻟﮫ ﻣﻌظم اﻟدول ﻟﺗﺣﻘﯾﻘﮫ ﻣن أﺟل زﯾﺎدة اﻟدﺧل اﻟﻘوﻣﻲ وﻣن ﺛم زﯾﺎدة ﻣﺗوﺳط دﺧل اﻟﻔرد،  ﻛﻣﺎ  أن  ﻗطﺎع اﻻﺗﺻﺎﻻت ﯾﻌد ﻣن اﻟﻘطﺎﻋﺎت ذات اﻟﻘﯾﻣﺔ اﻟﻣﺿﺎﻓﺔ اﻟﻌﺎﻟﯾﺔ وھو  اﻟذي ﯾﺣﻘﻖ ﻋﺎﺋدا ﻛﺑﯾرا  ﻟﻠدوﻟﺔ وذﻟك ﻋن طرﯾﻖ ﻓرض اﻟرﺳوم واﻟﺿراﺋب وﻟﻣﺎ ﯾﻣﺗﻠﻛﮫ ﻣن ﺳرﻋﺔ اﺗﺳﺎع وﻧظر اً  ﻷھﻣ ﯾﺔ ھذا  اﻟﻘطﺎع وﻣﺎ ﯾﺣﻘﻘﮫ ﻣن ﻋواﺋد ﻣﺎﻟﯾﺔ ﻛﺑﯾرة  ﻓﻘد ﺗﻧﺎﻓﺳت اﻟﺷرﻛﺎت اﻻﺳﺗﺛﻣﺎرﯾﺔ ﻟﻠﻌﻣل ﻓﯾﮫ، وﻟذﻟك  ﻓﻘد رﻛز  ھذا اﻟﺑﺣث ﻋﻠﻰ ﻗﯾﺎس  أﺛر  اﻻﺳﺗﺛﻣﺎر ﻓﻲ ﻗطﺎع اﻻﺗﺻﺎﻻت ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﻧﻣو اﻻﻗﺗﺻﺎدي ﻓﻲ اﻟﻌراق ﻟﻠﻔﺗرة  ﻣن (2004 – 2019 ).
ﻓﻘد ﺿم اﻟﺑﺣث ﻓﻲ طﯾﺎﺗﮫ اﻟﺗﻌرض ﻟﻣﻔﮭوم اﻻﺳﺗﺛﻣﺎر واﻟﻌواﻣل اﻟﻣؤﺛرة ﻓﯾﮫ وﺑﯾﺄن   أﻧواﻋﮫ وأھم   اﻟﻧظرﯾﺎت اﻟﻣﻔﺳرة  ﻟﮫ ﻛﻣﺎ ﺗطرق اﻟﺑﺣث ﻟﺑﯾﺎن   ﻣﻔﮭوم اﻟﻧﻣو اﻻﻗﺗﺻﺎدي وﻣﺣد د اﺗﮫ وأﻧواﻋﮫ وأھم  ﻧظرﯾﺎﺗﮫ  وﻣن ﺛم ﺑﯾﺄن   ﻋﻼﻗﺔ اﻻﺳﺗﺛﻣﺎر ﺑﺎﻟﻧﻣو اﻻﻗﺗﺻﺎدي وﻣن ﺛم ﻗﯾﺎس وﺗﺣﻠﯾل اﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺑﯾن اﻻﺳﺗﺛﻣﺎر ﻓﻲ ﻗطﺎع  اﻻﺗﺻﺎﻻت واﻟﻧﻣو اﻻﻗﺗﺻﺎدي  وذﻟك ﻋن طرﯾﻖ  ﺗﺣﻠﯾل واﻗﻊ اﻻﺗﺻﺎﻻت ﺑﺎﻟﻌراق وﻣن ﺛم اﻷ ﻧﺗﻘﺎل  إﻟﻰ   اﻟﺗﺣﻠﯾل اﻟﻌﻣﻠﻲ ﻋن طرﯾﻖ  اﺧﺗﺑﺎر اﻻﺳﺗﻘرارﯾﺔ ﻟﻣﺗﻐﯾرات  اﻷﻧﻣوذج   ﻟﻠﺳﻠﺳﻠﺔ اﻟزﻣﻧﯾﺔ وﻣن ﺛم اﺧﺗﺑﺎر اﻟﺗﻛﺎﻣل اﻟﻣﺷﺗرك وﻣن ﺛم ﺗﻘدﯾر ﻧﻣوذج اﻷ ﻧﺣدار اﻟذاﺗﻲ وﻗد ﺑﯾن اﻟﺑﺣث  أن  أن  ھﻧﺎك ﻋﻼﻗﺔ طردﯾﺔ ﺑﯾن  اﻟﻧﺎﺗﺞ اﻟﻣﺣﻠﻲ اﻹﺟﻣﺎﻟﻲ ) GDP(  ﻟﻠﺳﻧﺔ ﺳﺎﺑﻘﺔ واﻟﻧﺎﺗﺞ اﻟﻣﺣﻠﻲ اﻹﺟﻣﺎﻟﻲ   ﻟﻠﺳﻧﺔ اﻟﺣﺎﻟﯾﺔ  أي   أن   ﺗﻐﯾر  GDP  ﻟﺳﻧﺔ اﻟﺳﺎﺑﻘﺔ ﺑﻣﻘدار وﺣدة واﺣد ﺳﯾؤدي  إﻟﻰ   زﯾﺎدة  GDP  ﻟﻠﺳﻧﺔ اﻟﺣﺎﻟﯾﺔ ﺑﻣﻘدار0.99  وﻛذﻟك ﻓﺄن   اﻷ ﺛر  ﻣوﺟب وھذا ﻣطﺎﺑﻖ ﻟﻣﺿﻣون اﻟﻧظرﯾﺔ  اﻻﻗﺗﺻﺎدﯾﺔ , أﻣﺎ ﻣﺗﻐﯾر   اﻷﺳﺗﺛﻣﺎر ﻓﻲ ﻗطﺎع اﻹﺗﺻﺎﻻت   )ITS(   ﻟﺳﻧﺔ ﺳﺎﺑﻘﺔ ﻓﺄ ﻧﮫ  أﯾﺿﺎ ﯾرﺗﺑط ﺑﻌﻼﻗﺔ  ﻋﻛﺳﯾﺔ ﻣﻊ  GDP ﻟﻠﺳﻧﺔ اﻟﺣﺎﻟﯾﺔ إذ  أن زﯾﺎدة  ITS ﻟﺳﻧﺔ ﺳﺎﺑﻘﺔ ﺑﻣﻘدار وﺣدة واﺣدة ﺳﯾؤدي إﻟﻰ أ ﻧﺧﻔﺎض  GDP  ﻟﻠﺳﻧﺔ اﻟﺣﺎﻟﯾﺔ ﺑﻣﻘدار6.89  وﺣدة وذﻟك ﻷن   طﺑﯾﻌﺔ اﻻﺳﺗﺛﻣﺎر ﻓﻲ ﻗطﺎع اﻻﺗﺻﺎﻻت ھو اﺳﺗﺛﻣﺎر  أﺟﻧﺑﻲ   وﻋﻠﯾﮫ ﻓﺄن   ﻋواﺋد ھذا اﻻﺳﺗﺛﻣﺎر ﺳوف ﯾﻧﺗﻘل ﻣﻧﮭﺎ  إﻟﻰ   ﺧﺎرج اﻟﺑﻠد دون اﻻﺳﺗﻔﺎدة ﻣﻧﮭﺎ ﻣﺣﻠﯾﺎ وﻛذﻟك ﻋدم وﺟود ﺗوﺟﮫ ﻟﻠدوﻟﺔ ﺑﺎﻻﺳﺗﺛﻣﺎر ﻓﻲ ھذا اﻟﻘطﺎع اﻟﻣرﺑﺢ .

The Impact of Inv estment in The Telecommunications Sector on Economic Growth Iraq is a case study.

Abstract

Investment in general and foreign direct investment is one of the important economic activities that contribute effectively to pushing forward economic growth after this issue has become a major goal that most countries seek to achieve in order to increase national income and then increase the average per capita income, and the telecommunications sector It is considered one of the sectors with high added value and it achieves a great return for the state by imposing fees and taxes and because of its rapid expansion and due to the importance of this sector and the great financial returns it achieves, investment companies have competed to work in it, and therefore this research focused on measuring the impact of investment In the telecommunications sector on economic growth in Iraq for the period (2004-2019).

The research included an exposure to the concept of investment and the factors affecting it, its types and the most important theories explaining it. The research also dealt with a statement of the concept of economic growth, its determinants, types and its most important theories, and then the relationship of investment with economic growth, and then measuring and analyzing the relationship between investment in the telecommunications sector and economic growth through Analyzing the reality of communications in Iraq and then moving to a practical analysis by testing the stability of the model variables for the time series and then testing the joint integration and then estimating the self-regression model.

The research showed that there is a positive relationship between the gross domestic product (GDP) of the previous year and the gross domestic product of the current year, meaning that changing the GDP of the previous year by one unit will lead to an increase in the GDP for the current year by 0.99, as well as the effect is positive and this corresponds to the content of economic theory, As for the investment variable in the telecommunications sector (ITS) for a previous year, it is also related to an inverse relationship with the GDP for the current year as increasing the ITS for the previous year by one unit will lead to a decrease in the GDP for the current year by 6.79 units because the nature of the investment in the telecommunications sector is foreign investment. The returns from this investment will be transferred from it outside the country without benefiting from it locally, as well as the absence of a trend for the state to invest in this profitable sector.