اثرمصادر تمويل الموازنة العامة في تراكم الدين العام و الاستقرار النقدي في دول مختارة

Rp- The impact of public budget financing sources on public debt accumulation and monetary stability in selected countries .pdf

The general budget is a pivotal tool in formulating countries’ economic policies, as its funding sources directly impact the size of public debt and monetary stability. With increasing financial pressures and recurring budget deficits, it has become necessary to study the impact of these sources (such as taxes, oil revenues, other revenues, social contributions, and grants) on the accumulation of public debt and monetary stability.
This research aims to analyze the financial situation of the countries included in the study sample during the period (1990–2023) by examining the reality of general budget financing, methods of public debt management, and indicators of its accumulation, such as the debt-to-GDP ratio and the budget deficit-to-GDP ratio. The research also analyzes monetary stability indicators, including the consumer price index, exchange rate, interest rate, and monetary stability coefficient, while testing the existence of long-term equilibrium relationships between budget financing and public debt accumulation, as well as between budget financing and monetary stability. The research question includes the extent to which public budget financing sources affect public debt accumulation and monetary stability, and whether the degree of this effect varies between countries. Two main hypotheses are considered: the first assumes an effect of public budget financing on public debt accumulation, and the second assumes an effect on monetary stability, with the degree of effect varying between countries. The hypotheses were tested by formulating null and alternative hypotheses for each relationship using appropriate standard tools. The research relied on the standard analytical deductive approach. The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model was applied, due to its ability to analyze dynamic relationships between economic variables in the short and long term. Tests for the existence of long-term equilibrium relationships were also used, which enhances the accuracy of the results and provides a scientific basis for interpreting the effect of financing sources on public debt and monetary stability.
The findings reveal that excessive reliance on borrowing to finance the deficit, without directing it toward productive projects, exacerbates public debt and weakens economic growth. Financing with external debt or printing money exposes the economy to the risks of inflation and exchange rate deterioration, threatening monetary stability. Continuing this approach without structural reforms locks the country into a vicious cycle of debt and undermines investor confidence. Debt sustainability becomes dependent on the economy’s ability to achieve growth that exceeds the cost of debt servicing.