استخدام المتغيرات الموزعة زمنياً في تحليل الانفاق الاستهلاكي في العراق للمدة (2014-1995)

Rp-The Use of Temporally Distributed Variables in the Analysis of consumer spending in Iraq for the Period (2014-1995)].pdf

Consumption is one of the main variables of the macro economy, whose components and direction of development must be analyzed using different statistical and mathematical models, including Lagged variable models. Obviously, this requires comparing the different models of the time variables to reach the best of these models Consistent with the overall consumption function of the Iraqi economy, The researcher used the statistical programs (Eviews 7, SPSS, Excel) for the purpose of estimating the standard models and forecasting their development trends. Based on the statistical data for the period (2014-1995) And obtained from the Central Bureau of Statistics and other relevant bodies. In addition, the researcher has reached several results, most notably that the most economical and statistical model is the Koyck model, which is closer to reality than the other models and its application does not need to put any restrictions or assumptions We do not need to perform any calculations that precede the guesswork, but also note that it gives great importance to the first feedback year when compared to other regression models, The researcher also recommends that the proportion of consumer spending should be determined to national income in order to ensure that most of the national income is channeled towards investment rather than consumption and measures are taken to encourage foreign investment to develop all sectors of the economy. Of the government spending towards domestic products and provide the requirements for advancement by the local industrial establishments, whether small or medium and large size.