الحرب الأهلية في ناغورني- كاراباخ (1988-1994م) دراسة تاريخيـة

Rp-The Civill War in Nagorno-Karabakh (1988-1994) A Historical Study .pdf

National and regional conflicts constitute one of the most prominent manifestations of the complex divisions that characterized the regions under Soviet influence during the twentieth century. Ethnic, religious, historical, and political contradictions accumulated under a strong central authority, which quickly collapsed in the late 1980s, revealing the fragility of the demographic and institutional structures in the former Soviet republics. These conflicts resulted from a long legacy of politicized administrative decisions enacted under an absolute authority that did not recognize national identities or the historical rights of peoples, but rather viewed the geopolitical map as a stage for balancing interests and rewarding loyalties. Among these conflicts, the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is among the most intractable, given its historical reach, its complex dimensions, and the intertwining of local, regional, and international factors influencing it. Nagorno-Karabakh, meaning “Black Highlands,” lies in the heart of the South Caucasus. For centuries, it has been a constant flashpoint between the major powers competing over this strategic region, from the Persian and Ottoman empires to Russian and then Soviet domination. The region was characterized by its complex demographic composition, with Armenians constituting the majority of the population, while administrative sovereignty was sometimes subordinated to the Persians, sometimes to the Turks, and later to the Russians. Following the expansion of the Russian Empire into the Caucasus during the nineteenth century, Nagorno-Karabakh was incorporated into Tsarist rule. However, major transformations came in the wake of the Bolshevik Revolution of 1917, which reshaped the map of the Caucasian republics according to an ideological and political perspective, rather than based on demographic or historical realities. In 1923, the Soviet leadership annexed Nagorno-Karabakh, with its overwhelmingly Armenian majority, to the Azerbaijan Soviet Socialist Republic, granting it autonomy within Azerbaijani borders. This move was later described as an expression of political calculations aimed at wooing the newly formed Kemalist Turkey and maintaining the regional balance in the South Caucasus. This decision was merely a postponement of the crisis, not a solution. Armenians’ demands for the region’s annexation to the Republic of Armenia remained present, but Soviet repression and fear of political liquidation silenced them for decades until the 1980s brought with it a wind of change. With the launch of the policy of perestroika (restructuring) and glasnest (transparency) announced by Mikhail Gorbachev in the mid-1980s, public spaces in the Soviet Union opened up to national and legal discussions. Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh demanded secession from Azerbaijan and integration into Armenia. These demands were based on the argument of the population majority, the shared history, and the ancient Armenian culture of the region. The Azerbaijani authorities met these demands with categorical rejection, and the opposing positions were accompanied by an escalation in tensions, which led to widespread demonstrations in both Yerevan and Baku, which quickly turned into acts of violence and bloody confrontations, most notably the Sumgait massacre, which claimed the lives of 1,000 people. Dozens of Armenians were killed in 1988. The collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 left a major security and political vacuum, which local forces exploited to reorganize their positions according to the logic of force. The Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh unilaterally declared the region’s independence from Azerbaijan, under the name “Nagorno-Karabakh Republic.” This declaration was not recognized by any country in the world, including Armenia itself, but it was the turning point that pushed the conflict toward all-out war. Armenia and Azerbaijan fought an open war from 1991 to 1994, one of the bloodiest wars of the post-Cold War era. The war officially ended with the signing of a ceasefire agreement brokered by Russia in May 1994. This agreement did not end the crisis, but rather froze it, establishing a new reality on the ground, based on Armenian control of the region and surrounding areas, in exchange for the displacement of hundreds of thousands of Azerbaijani residents and the transformation of Nagorno-Karabakh into a de facto independent entity without International recognition. Diplomatic efforts led by the OSCE Minsk Group have been unable to provide a genuine political settlement that addresses the roots of the conflict and meets the demands of the two conflicting parties.
The thesis is divided into an introduction, three chapters, and a conclusion. The first chapter includes a geographical and historical overview of Nagorno-Karabakh until 1988. It addresses the importance of the region’s geographical location and natural features, its demographic composition—Armenian in majority and Azerbaijani in minority—and an analysis of the local community in terms of religion, language, and culture. It also examines the early stages of the Russian Empire’s control over the Caucasus, its annexation of Nagorno-Karabakh in the early nineteenth century, and its repercussions on the demographic and political situation. It discusses the establishment of the region as an autonomous region within the Azerbaijan Soviet Republic in 1923, under Joseph Stalin’s nationalities policy. The chapter focuses on the development of relations between Armenians and Azerbaijanis during the Soviet era, and the This was accompanied by marginalization of the Armenian majority and Azerbaijani attempts at political and cultural hegemony, as well as Turkification policies, identity and affiliation conflicts, and the intensification of nationalist demands amidst the relative openness of the Gorbachev era. The chapter concludes by examining the early rise of the Armenian movement in the region, with the escalation of demands for secession from Azerbaijan and integration into Armenia. This period became a realistic prelude to the coming explosion in 1988.
Chapter Two sheds light on the developments in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and the beginning of the shift from political demands to direct confrontation in 1988. It examines the emergence of the Armenian nationalist movement in Karabakh and the public calls for secession from the Azerbaijan Soviet Republic and integration with Armenia, taking advantage of the political openness that accompanied Gorbachev’s reforms under perestroika and glasnost. The chapter also addresses the early Russian (Soviet) intervention in an attempt to contain the crisis and the apparent inability of the Soviet leadership in Moscow to contain the conflict or provide effective solutions, especially after the escalation of mass protests in both Yerevan and Baku, and the transformation of the conflict into violent sectarian and ethnic clashes. The chapter devotes space to the emergence of the Azerbaijani nationalist movement in response to Armenian demands, the intensification of separatist sentiment within Karabakh, and the outbreak of waves of violence and mutual displacement between Armenians and Azerbaijanis, leading to the gradual disintegration of the Communist Party’s authority in the region and the two neighboring republics. The third chapter, titled “The Escalation of the War in Nagorno-Karabakh and Its Developments between 1992 and 1994,” focuses on the transition from political tensions to the outbreak of open war between Armenia and Azerbaijan, reviewing major military developments in the region and the fall of several strategic cities. The chapter also addresses the escalation of the conflict during 1991 and 1992, the failure of Russian and European initiatives to halt it, and the inability of the Minsk Group to impose a peaceful settlement. The chapter addresses the second phase of the war in 1992, which saw the spread of fighting to large areas, and the role of regional parties in fueling the conflict. The chapter also discusses the role of the UN Security Council and its resolutions calling for a ceasefire and troop withdrawal, which were unsuccessful in their implementation on the ground. The chapter also reviews the course of the war during 1993, the military advance of Armenian forces into the region and neighboring Azerbaijani regions, and the waves of displacement and severe economic deterioration that resulted, along with international efforts to impose a peaceful settlement. The chapter concludes with an examination of the social and economic impacts of the war on the local population and Russia’s role in sponsoring the 1994 ceasefire agreement, which ended the fighting but kept the roots of the conflict intact even after the war ended.