تحليل العلاقة بين الإنفاق الاستثماري واجمالي تكوين رأس المال الثابت في العراق (دراسة تطبيقية للمدة 1980 – 2016)

Analyzing the relationship between investment expenditure and Gross fixed Capital formation in Iraq (applied study for the period 1980-2016)

Abstract
The test of the Granger Causality test of statistical tests of importance in determining the direction and nature of the relationship between variables in general, the causality in the field of econometrics is the basis of the quantitative estimates of the variables of the model as the model is built on the theoretical foundations as that there are independent variables affecting the dependent variable, We are therefore in the knowledge of the amount of change in the dependent variable to be interpreted, which is caused by the change in one or the set of independent variables, usually the relations in one direction, but sometimes there is a two-way relationship that means that the independent variable Can be followed and vice versa by analyzing the causal relationship between the two main variables of study (investment spending and gross fixed capital formation of the Iraqi economy and some important economic sectors.
As investment spending is one of the most important economic variables in the economies of developed and developing countries alike. To study the relationship between investment spending and gross fixed capital formation, investment is an important tool that contributes to economic activity as one of the tools used to increase production. Level of development.
The purpose of the thesis is to determine the nature of the causal relationship between investment expenditure and gross fixed capital formation of the Iraqi economy and some economic sectors. In order to reach the results of this analysis, the structure of the study is divided into three chapters.
The second topic includes the theoretical framework of the concepts of investment spending and the total fixed capital formation of the economy as a whole and in three economic sectors (agriculture, industry, transport and communications). The third chapter is the practical aspect It included the extraction of statistical indicators of unit root tests for the purpose of testing the stability of statistical data, the Kangeringer’s causation test and then the joint integration test to determine the existence of a long-term equilibrium relationship between the economic variables and the estimation of the VAR The study found that there is a causal relationship between investment expenditure and gross fixed capital formation for the economy as a whole. In the agriculture and industry sector, after the use of stability tests, the research results in stabilizing the variables of the two sectors at their original level. To analyze variables, while in the transport and communications sector was one of the variables The fourth chapter included the conclusions and recommendations reached through this research in addition to the Arab and foreign sources and references. The research ended with a set of statistical annexes which included: All the above statistical tests.